For the fifth time in the last seven seasons, the Phoenix Suns and the San Antonio Spurs meet in the playoffs, providing several high scoring games and many unforgettable moments. Who can forget the Robert Horry hip check on Steve Nash in Game Four of the 2007 Western Conference Semis? Or the Tony Parker-Steve Nash collision in Game One of that same series, causing Nash to miss most of the end of a tight ball game? Or Tim Duncan’s game tying three pointer in Game One of their 2008 First Round Series, a shot which set the tone for the rest of the series?
The Suns have not beaten the Spurs in the playoffs since 2000, a series in which the Spurs played without Tim Duncan due to a knee injury. Can the Suns finally reverse the curse against San Antonio?
Starting Lineups
Phoenix San Antonio
PG Steve Nash PG George Hill
SG Jason Richardson SG Manu Ginobili
SF Grant Hill SF Richard Jefferson
PF Amare Stoudemire PF Tim Duncan
C Jarron Collins C Antonio McDyess
Key Matchup
There are so many match-ups to choose from. Duncan vs Stoudemire in the post, Nash vs Hill/Parker, Ginobili vs Hill, and which enigmatic athlete actually shows up in Jason Richardson or Richard Jefferson.
The key for this series is going to be how well Richard Jefferson plays against Jason Richardson. In the games the Suns won vs Portland, Richardson scored 28 a game, and only 14 in their losses. While the Spurs were 7-1 during the regular season when Jefferson scored over 20 points. Jefferson is capable of exploding for big scoring games against the porous Suns D. If the Spurs can bottle up the Suns up-tempo attack, where Richardson excels, the Spurs should be able to swing this key match-up their way.
Analysis
Phoenix comes in confident after finishing out Portland last Thursday. When asked about trying to reverse the curse against San Antonio in recent years, Steve Nash reminded reporters that only three players (Stoudemire, Nash, and Leandro Barbosa) from the current roster have played in those battles. He is right. The Suns have added more depth since and could be the most complete Suns team the Spurs have faced. Players like Goran Dragic and Leandro Barbosa provide energy and play-making ability for the Suns off the bench. Channing Frye is a big man who can spread the floor for Phoenix, much like Matt Bonner does for San Antonio. Jared Dudley and Louis Amundson will likely match up against Tim Duncan during the series. How they match up against the Spurs’ bench is a key to the series.
Likewise, the Spurs will need support for their Big Three of Duncan, Ginobili, and Parker in order to knock off the Suns. Sophomore George Hill has thrived in the playoffs since returning from an ankle injury late in the season and was the Spurs’ biggest contributor outside the Big Three. Against Dallas, Hill hit big shot after big shot in victories in Games 4 and 6, including a 29 point effort in the Game 4 win. Richard Jefferson showed flashes of brilliance against Dallas and should continue to find his spots in the Spurs’ offense. Antonio McDyess played superb defense on Dirk Nowitzki and hit the outside shot enough to keep Dallas’ defense honest. Matt Bonner provided help rebounding and scored well both from the three point line and driving to the basket. Dejuan Blair brings length, energy and hustle of the bench. Together, they formed one of the best benches in the league.
Injuries could play a key part of the series. Except for Ginobili’s nose, the Spurs are as healthy as they’ve been in years. Tony Parker is healed from his wrist injury, and it should not limit him in the series. Tim Duncan’s knees are something the Spurs monitor closely from game to game.
Meanwhile, C Robin Lopez did not play for the Suns last series due to a bulging disk in his back. But, he has started to practice and may play in the series. The Suns could definitely use their best shot blocker against the Spurs pick and roll game. Steve Nash’s hip has also caused him some problems the last few days and has sat out practice in recent days.
On offense, the Suns will try to run the ball on the older Spurs and try to score quick baskets in transition. Their frenetic, fast pace against Portland in Games Five and Six was too much for the Blazers to handle. This means the Suns will likely go to a “small ball” lineup to try to control the tempo of the game.
The Spurs will have to guard well in transition and control the tempo of the game. A slower, half court style game suits the Spurs better. Their pick and roll game should do well against the Suns if they decide to go to a smaller lineup with no real shot blockers.
I expect the Spurs to allow Stoudemire and Nash to dominate the Suns offense, while focusing on not leaving the perimeter shooters of the Suns. This strategy has worked in the previous match-ups with the Suns stars putting up huge numbers, but getting no help from the supporting cast.
The Spurs will be able to score at will against the Suns lackluster D. Parker, Ginobili, and Hill should have a parade to the rim for layups against the Suns small line-up with no shot blockers and all should have a big series.
I expect the Spurs to control the pace of play for the majority of the series, and even if they do allow the Suns to run, this Spurs team is fully capable of running with them with a line-up of Parker, Hill, Ginobili, Jefferson, and Duncan. That may be a line-up you see Popovich run for the closing minutes of most games.
In the end, the Spurs are too experienced, and too good on D for the Suns to break their losing trend. Greg Popovich will be able to coach circles around Alvin Gentry, and the Spurs will ultimately win in 6.
Anthony Treemarki
Notre Dame Social Foundations of Coaching Class
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